Just a brief look into my other life Photography

I am preparing for an art installation.  I look forward to your thought and opinions.

Link to Flicker photos

Enjoy!  And thank you for your support.

Kind regards,
Scotland

Shifting from Climate Change to Climate Extremes

 by Scotland Willis

The discussion over climate change, has been a hotly debated issue since it's inception.  Advocates fiercely reacting to opponents of climate related issues with great fervor to emphasize the seriousness of potential threats.  Now is not the time to add to that flame, but rather clarify- and continue to do so.  Choosing a discourse that is based on observations, reasonable extrapolations, and comparative data year over year, is imperative.  Action is a must.

Yes, it is impossible to predict exactly what is going to happen with the weather patterns around the world, many experts believe the extremes will continue to increase aggressively- a likely scenario.  But if speculation, projections and modeling aren't sufficient (a task carried out by experts in the field of science), then why do we depend so heavily on them with regards to economic market conditions?  Such models are known as market predictability models; hundreds of billions of dollars each day depend on such projections and their outcomes.  Why? Simple, they are a good indicator of human behavior with reference to increasing or decreasing the price of various commodities.

 Why then, are such sophisticated systems dismissed in climate modeling?  Asserting that using probabilities and potentialities is not a reliable source, is a poor argument for non-action by policy makers and the general population for that matter.

It is important to be able to translate this into climate extremes and human behavior; market behavior is of course very different- or is it.

If we think of the environment in an inverse sort of way, we can look at it a bit differently.  While we can't change the weather based on how many people are going to buy a share of sunshine or speculate on rain; we do do this in a sense.  People bid on crops and other agribusiness all the time.  The performance of the weather significantly determines whether the price of wheat will go up or down.  Take the fires that destroyed the wheat crops in Russia.  People who speculated that the price of wheat would go down when those crops matured lost their bet in terms of stock futures.  Why? because the unexpected wildfires that destroyed the crops thus increasing the price of wheat.


And there is evidence that governments have been tampering with, artificially experimenting and manipulating the weather patterns over the years.  But the other and more important point is that we (the human species), can intentionally shift the way we impact the environment.  It is true that if agribusiness could make enough millions they would play war games with other countries crops but that is not the topic of discussion here.

The former discussion is solely to raise awareness of potentialities.  What our human impact is doing is having an accelerated impact on weather conditions.  Climate change will always occur, but climate extremes will significantly impact how we live and what quality of life we can expect.  The other point of the discussion above was to look at the comparison of using predictions and forecasting to influence our decisions about legislative policy related to climate change.  A book written about crowdsourcing (link here), provides some insights to predictive modeling as a powerful source to understanding economic market behavior


In 2011, the United States experienced twelve (12) extreme weather events; the record in 2008 was nine such events.  These are generally events that translate into $1 billion in damage or more.  Two good resources to defer to are both the NOAA (link here) and a Public Broadcasting Service program NewsHour (link hour).  From Snowfall records in January of 2011 that paralyzed the midsection of the United States to the hundreds of people who died from record tornadoes that hit the country; more extreme weather patterns are striking with great force and increasing frequency.  The NOAA estimates $52b in total damage for weather related events in 2011.  These unusual weather events are not solely in the U.S.

This past Fall season, my travels took me to Thailand during flooding that struck the far north and continued southward decimating communities.  And early in 2012, Latin America is experiencing recording flooding, wildfires and droughts (Huffington Post).  Along with the extreme hurricane type winds that battered the U.K., these patters emit a warning signs that should have legislators acting on firm policies to protect the native populations.  Planning is the key.  But when project like Rancho Cielo Solar Farm get canceled one must ask why, and not just point to the DOE-- but ask who is pulling the strings?  How do such project like this get usurped politically?  Start by asking what is at stake for the existing industries that have dominion over energy sources.


Real Solutions
Locating energy sources closer to the populations that use them is an important decision to make.  A tremendous amount of energy is lost when electricity from power generating plants are located long distances from the end user.  But no one wants a coal burning plant in their back yard (unless you live in Washington D.C. [ Capital Power Plant], 60,000 tons of carbon dioxide).  Solution, find a different power source.  Granted that in some areas, certain environments are not hospitable to certain power sources.  The efficiency  is simply a poor trade off.  But in many places geothermal, solar and wind are seriously under utilized.

What to Expect
Expect more extreme storms.  The capacity of the atmosphere to retain more energy and moisture means that the release of such energy will be more extreme.  Can we harness more of that extreme energy and find creative ways to stave off or offset the negative impact? Can't answer that one.  But we can trust what is before us and act accordingly.

Extremeness:

• Snow: January record snowfall in Chicago blizzards that pounded 22 states in the midsection of the US;
• Spring: Tornadoes 3 largest twister outbreaks in 6 wks $25b dmage;
• 300 killed in 3 days
•  Tuscaloosa, Alabama leveled due to tornadoes;
• Joplin Missouri: Late May leveled killed over 150 people200 mph winds
• Hurricane Irene; ravaging the East coastline
• Droughts  TX $10b loss crops, livestock, timber, (hottest Summer in TX
• over 6000 1m acres over labor day weekend.
• Kansas 100 days over 100 temp

Astounding New Year

Amazing, is the best way to describe the first day of 2012.

Waking up early I decided to start my day with a hike.  I had not made plans much past that, because I intended on returning to Boston and watch the Patriots game.  After stopping by a locally owned coffee shop, where I enjoyed a brief conversation with an employee, I continued onward to my destination.

One of the most pleasurable things about living in the Northeastern United States, is the opportunity to enjoy a wide array of activities due to the change in seasons.  Skiing, running, cycling, sailing, hiking are all at one's disposal more or less.  Today my hike would be the first time I started the new year this way.  The pine trees are just one reminder of what makes nature so spectacular- healthy and green all year round.

The day before I called the park rangers office to ensure the area was open and that it was not hunting season, not wanting to be a human target nor wanting to wear special clothing to indicate I am not the desired target for a hunter.  Thankfully hunting season had ended just a couple of weeks earlier.  I was anxious to begin the year this way- my first accomplishment of 2012.  It wasn't about me, it was about doing something for me.

I picked up a trail map outside the office since the offices were closed due to the new year.  I packed away my compass determined not to use it, and began doing some light bushwhacking after starting off on a trail.

What made the hike invigorating is the prospect of getting lost. Perhaps it was because there was no real threat; I had my compass if I needed it, it was early in the day, and I was relatively familiar with the landscape. The hike itself was only rated as a level 6.  I remember feeling slightly frustrated because I had to cross a road during my hike; I paused and realized that was not why I was out here- issue resolved and back to enjoying myself.

The landscape reminded me of Colorado at times.  Because of the vastness of Colorado and the diverse animal and tree life, it provides an overwhelming sense of aloneness.  Aloneness is different than solitude; there is an absence of company.  At times it can be discomforting, not knowing where help might come from if an accident occurred.  There are also times I wonder, what if something in me actually failed-- what would I do, more importantly, what would happen; how long would it take for anyone to discover I was even gone.  I don't think I told anyone where I was going specifically.  All that didn't matter too much, the sense of throwing caution to the wind was of greater importance.

I was lost in a controlled way, for about two hours before I regained my bearings, I headed back to the car. I usually move at a pretty good clip, today was not exception.
After arriving at the car, I already decided towards the end of my hike that I would then drive to the end of Massachusetts (where I have never been), and continue to indulge myself in starting the new year off differently than every before.  I arrived at Provincetown or P-Town to the locals.  It was exactly what I expected.  Exuberance best describes the inner sense of emotions.

High tide was coming in and the sun was on its way down.  Several things ensued that postponed my planned departure.

As I began walking down the beach my first encounter was with a mother and two daughters.  They were writing something in the sand and I asked if they would like me to take a photo of them.  Gleefully they responded "absolutely".  Their happiness turned into communion, and they invited me to join them as we substituted photographers- I was not a subject.  This event immediately raised my enthusiasm about being there.  It that had been my Ted Koppel sign off and I had to head back home, that would have made my day, but it did not end there.

A man who presumably lived in the area, came riding down the beach on a beautiful stallion.  If you don't have a love for horses, this might not seem significant but for me it contributed to a perfect day.  I have always had a passion for horses and committed to owning one some day.  While this may not have been a highlight, it reminded me of when I went horseback riding  on the beach in Costa Rica.

This experience had me feeling like the Universe was placing everything in order, that I was hoping for this day.  Though the day was coming to an end, it felt more like it was just beginning.  What what really happening was my year was just beginning- figuratively and literally.

Another 100 meters from my horse encounter and a group of ten or so women were performing their annual ritual.  Though only four of the women decided to take the bold initiative of stripping charging the Atlantic Ocean as well as seemingly defying the obstacles of the new year.  You could almost hear their karma saying "no obstacle before me will stop me from my....", something.  Honestly there is no way of telling what they might be thinking, yet it was evident that there was a sense of defiance.

Their act was inspirational as the men and women abound cheered them on.  In fact so inspired was I that I followed suit.  OK too much information, but I could not resist the sense of liberation and defiance.  Over the centuries mankind has always challenged his greatest foe, the planet.  Defiance of gravity, defiance of immobility, defiance of penetrating the atmosphere... of the ocean depths, and mountain tops.  This was one of those occasions, perhaps not quite so grandiose-   though for me, it was every bit as fulfilling.  I stayed in the ocean for about five minutes, absorbing the moment; enjoying the unmistakable sensation of the near freezing water.  I recall not wanting to get out.  There was more to this day and I did not want to miss any of what else might be in store.  I feel the Universe has a way of ordering things, this was my moment.  As a deep sea diver I embrace the water, I like to think we share a certain kinship.



Afterwards we all gathered around the ritualistic bonfire.  Having changed into fresh dry clothing and drying off, I simply reflected on the events of the day- pleasant.  I was indifferent to the ride home; neither ready to go nor stay.  I said goodbye to my new friends and promised I would return next year.